There arent any names yet, sorry, but at least we have a clearer reason for Big Te is losing its most valuable commodity.

Humans.

At least in the region that has supported the Big Ten for years. “Were growing,” Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany said Tuesday during the Big Ten spring meetings, “Were just not growing at the same rate as others.”

The Rust Belts population drain has sent a shiver through Big Ten coaches, athletic directors and presidents. At least thats the way it was portrayed by Delany as he continued to tip-toe around the expansion issue that has his commissioner peers shivering.

Whether population is merely a talking-point disguise for making more money isnt certain but the evidence is there. A 2008 study revealed that 27 of the 50 fastest-growing metro areas were in the South. None was in the Northeast. Detroit had lost three times as much population as any other metro area. Others losing significa two Big Ten strongholds.

The Big Tens eight-state region encompasses Detroit, Cleveland and other cities hit hard by a failing economy.

“I think that is reason by itself enough to look at the concept of expansion,” Delany said. “I say it for the following reason: Weve been blessed in many ways by the economy and density of the population in the 20th century. Our schools have benefitted by healthy economies, by strong job markets, by growth, by immigration. In the U.S. the population started off on the East Coast and moved to the Midwest. In the last 20 or 30 years, its been a clear shift to movement into the Sun Belt.”

That can mean a couple of things in this could still be in play. Or, more li grabbing schools from Missouri, New York and New Jersey to address that drain. Or, as Delany keeps reminding us, do nothing at all.

“If thats [population drain] going to continue the next 20 years, do we need to take a look at our conference and see if a membership change would have any effect on it?” Iowa AD Gary Barta asked rhetorically. “Its about filling our stadiums, recruiting, media, sponsorships, all those things.”

Population is a relative thing. For the third consecutive year, Big Ten schools finished in the top three in attendance (Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State). The league as a whole finished second to the SEC.

Those attendance figures begin to define, not quite a rivalry, but uneasiness between the SEC and Big Ten. While the Rust Belt is losing population, the South, home of the SEC, is booming.

One league (SEC) has four consecutive national championships; the other just won its first Rose Bowl in 10 years. One has the best football (SEC); the other has the best network.

The Big Ten “footprint” counts for ap the SEC is at 23 percent. The SEC produces $5 million less in revenue per year for its teams compared to the Big Ten ($22 million-$17 million). But even a slight shift in population could tip the scales the other way. Thats when recruiting, media coverage and sponsorships come into play.

Ohio State AD Gene Smith (left): Our presidents are in it not just because of football. (US Presswire) “We have all the competition we need with the SEC,” Delany said, “on the field.” If those numbers and teams remained static, nothing changes. But SEC commissioner Mike Slive suggested last month that if there is a shift in the “conference paradigm” his league would respond. Think SEC exp for starters.

“I really didnt have a reaction to his reaction to my reaction,” Delany said of Slive.

He did three years ago when recruiting analyst Tom Lemming disparaged the Big Ten in recruiting. Delany responded by saying any advantage the SEC had in recruiting was because his league kept “faith in our academic standards.”

Translation: The Big Ten may be losing bodies, but it isnt losing its principles. What is the tipping point, then, for the SEC to respond with an expansion of its own that would impact almost all of Division I-A? Noted economist Andrew Zimbalist of Smith College sees the logic in the Big Tens population argument but said that doesnt explain why the Big Ten would “try to cannibalize other conferences.”

“To me thats the larger question,” Zimbalist added. “If I say that because of the financial crisis my family is in … and I rob my neighbors house, people would look at me like I was crazy and throw me in jail.”

The barbs are out there. Finality is not. The only hard news to come out of Tuesday is that nothing will happen until June 6 as thats when the Big Ten presidents next meet. They will not be voting on any new members, Delany said.

“You bring the beer,” he told reporters, “well cook the brats. But if you think there will be any earth-shattering announcements on June 6, I dont think youll get them.”

Delany trotted out statistics showing that conference change is nothing new. According to his research, more than half of 330-plus Division I schools have switched conference affiliation at least once in the last 20 years. The everybody-e the Big Ten has expanded only twice in the last 60 years.

History shows that networks only want to televise the 30 or 40 biggest football programs. To them, conferences sometimes are necessary evils. They pay to get Nebraska, Oklahoma and Ohio State but also have to take Baylor, Iowa State and Indiana.

The idea of super conferences merely reshuffles the deck. The Big Ten wants super conference. There were 63 schools in the old College Football Association after the break-up of the NCAAs television monopoly in the 1980s and now there are 66 BCS schools. Four super conferences add up to 64 schools. The difference between the high and low in that historical comparison is exactly three schools.

In the new landscape, the conference with the most network-worthy programs wins.

“I would be shocked if we got larger, that [other conferences] would automatically get larger,” Delany said.

Ohio State AD Gene Smith oversees the second-biggest athletic budget in the country. But he also knows the league fancies itself as a giant think tank with all 11 schools in the prestigious Association of American Universities. More AAU schools under one umbrella could make for more federal grants, more research money which could equate to bigger enrollments. Population drain problem solved?

“The academic piece, do not underestimate that …,” Smith said. “Just imagine the schools with the cancer centers that collaborate even better. Youre hitting on the most important part of this deal that people are actually missing. Our presidents are in it not just because of football.”

Posted on May 20th, 2010 by admin
Filed under: College football news, NCAA college football